| Indicator | % | Δ | Latest | 1M | Latest Date | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1) LEADING INDICATORS | ||||||
Manufacturing activityAverage weekly hours in manufacturing – early sign of production shifts. | +3.60% | +1.40 | 39.90 | 38.801M | Nov 4 | 12/15/2025 |
Jobless claimsInitial unemployment claims – rise signals an upcoming slowdown. | -13.30% | -33.00 | 223.00 | 248.001M | Nov 4 | 12/15/2025 |
New orders (consumer goods)Factory orders for consumer goods and materials – indicates future demand. | +6.90% | +8.30 | 125.30 | 120.201M | Nov 4 | 12/15/2025 |
Purchasing managers' new orders (ISM)Survey-based measure of new manufacturing orders – signals business optimism. | +8.80% | +4.40 | 52.40 | 49.801M | Nov 4 | 12/15/2025 |
Building permitsNew housing permits – anticipates future construction activity. | +9.60% | +117.00 | 1290.00 | 1225.001M | Nov 4 | 12/15/2025 |
Stock market (S&P 500)Equity prices – markets anticipate future economic performance. | +5.00% | +280.40 | 5744.20 | 5612.101M | Nov 4 | 12/15/2025 |
Yield curve spread (10y–Fed Funds)Difference between long and short rates – inversion predicts recessions. | -6.50% | -0.15 | 2.00 | 2.151M | Nov 4 | 12/15/2025 |
Money supply (M2)Broad money supply – growth supports future spending and output. | +2.90% | +569.90 | 20520.20 | 20275.401M | Nov 4 | 12/15/2025 |
Consumer expectationsConsumer sentiment on future economic conditions. | +8.90% | +6.30 | 73.70 | 70.501M | Nov 4 | 12/15/2025 |
Credit conditions indexMeasures credit availability – tightening signals slowdown risk. | -3.60% | -1.70 | 44.40 | 46.101M | Nov 4 | 12/15/2025 |
| 2) COINCIDENT INDICATORS | ||||||
Employment (nonfarm payrolls)Total payroll employment – reflects current labor market strength. | +22.70% | +42.00 | 215.00 | 185.001M | Nov 4 | 12/15/2025 |
Personal income (ex transfers)Income earned from productive activity – tracks current growth. | +1.80% | +326.70 | 18399.80 | 18215.601M | Nov 4 | 12/15/2025 |
Industrial productionManufacturing and industrial output – core real-time activity measure. | +4.00% | +4.20 | 106.20 | 104.101M | Nov 4 | 12/15/2025 |
Business salesSales across manufacturing and trade – measures current demand. | +7.30% | +86.90 | 1249.60 | 1198.501M | Nov 4 | 12/15/2025 |
| 3) LAGGING INDICATORS | ||||||
Unemployment durationAverage length of unemployment – increases after downturns. | +8.50% | +2.20 | 27.00 | 26.001M | Nov 4 | 12/15/2025 |
Consumer credit ratioConsumer debt relative to income – rises late in expansions. | +3.90% | +0.70 | 18.20 | 17.801M | Nov 4 | 12/15/2025 |
Unit labor costsCost per unit of output – tends to rise after growth phases. | +2.30% | +2.60 | 115.30 | 114.201M | Nov 4 | 12/15/2025 |
Bank prime rateAverage lending rate by banks – adjusts after policy rate changes. | -3.20% | -0.25 | 7.75 | 7.751M | Nov 4 | 12/15/2025 |
Commercial loans outstandingOutstanding business loans – expand late in the business cycle. | +6.90% | +160.50 | 2560.50 | 2485.301M | Nov 4 | 12/15/2025 |
Inventory-to-sales ratioRising ratio confirms slower demand and potential contraction. | +13.60% | +0.14 | 1.24 | 1.181M | Nov 4 | 12/15/2025 |
Inflation (CPI)Consumer Price Index – inflation reacts after growth phases. | -13.50% | -0.50 | 3.50 | 3.701M | Nov 4 | 12/15/2025 |